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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
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As for the regulatory outlooks for the ETFs, the SEC hasn’t publicly commented on the NHL funds’ fates and it’s too early to tell what will come of the MLB filings, but there are hundreds of futures-based ETFs on the market today.
That may be a sign that pro sports futures ETFs could avoid the “novel” label that’s been a hindrance in bringing other ETFs to market.
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In his 2022 letter to shareholders, he criticized mobile trading apps that make day trading and speculative positioning effortless, accusing them of turning the stock market into a “gambling parlor.”
Two years later, Buffett again targeted the “gamblification” of financial markets in his annual shareholder letter.
“Markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants,” Buffett wrote, noting that extreme volatility makes identifying sound, long-term investments vastly more difficult.