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The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.
What is Sic Bo (Tai Xiu) - Multiplayer?
However, the UK’s physical estate shrank, with overall licensed gambling premises falling by 2% to 8,081.
Betting shops declining for the twelfth consecutive period, standing at 5,617, a 3.6% decrease representing a loss of 208 shops year-on-year.
Various tier one and two retail operators, such as William Hill and Betfred, have scaled back and closed hundreds of shops between them this year.
What is Sic Bo (Tai Xiu) - Multiplayer?
Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.
“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”
This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.